Overall, there is no obvious difference between states with mask mandates and states without them. Discover a faster, simpler path to publishing in a high-quality journal. When the outbreak slammed the New York City area in March and April, leaders locked down. But the "reference period" is defined by the report as the 20 days before mask mandates started. Both mask policy and mask adherence for states and D.C. were cross-tabulated with high case rates in the subsequent month. She finds that mask-wearing is still the best course of action for mixed-vaccination status gatherings. If you've seen pictures of those kids, you know they are not necessarily using masks as intended. But as Flam notes, "the benefits of universal masking have been difficult to quantify" in the real world, where cloth models predominate and masks may not be clean, well-fitted, or worn properly. States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks. Even Greenpeace now admits the obvious: recycling doesnt work. 2023 Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, Inc. All rights reserved. But there are still settings where wearing your mask is crucial. The authors found that the growth rate of new coronavirus cases and deaths dropped after mask mandates were put in place. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t003. States in COVID-19 high-risk categories are listed in Table 1. The claim: CDC study found that face masks have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19. But the study did not take into account other policies or voluntary safeguards that may have differed between jurisdictions with and without mask mandates. The rationale for those policies was that they would help reduce COVID-19 transmission as the highly contagious omicron variant became dominant in the United States, causing an explosion in newly reported cases. The three COVID-19 vaccines authorized by the FDA are also helping slow COVID-19 rates, allowing for the easing of restrictions. So could age demographics: The median age of Florida's population is 42.5, compared to 37 in California. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order May 3, 2021. that barred local governments and school systems from imposing COVID-19 restrictions, including mask rules. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. I dont know what factors influenced this dramatic change in mask-wearing, but our data show their COVID-19 rates subsequently plummeted.. The announcement comes one day after Joe Biden pleaded with state and local leaders to maintain or reinstate mask mandates, due to recent alarming trends in US coronavirus case numbers. Methodology, Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. The study concluded that mask mandates and use are not associated with slower state-level Covid-19 spread during Covid-19 growth surges. The medias narrative about masks extended throughout the world. PLoS ONE 16(4): We combined the Recommended and Strict groups into Any policy. The findings were published in the journal PLOS One in April. States with stronger policy responses over the long run are seeing comparatively smaller outbreaks. Swedens initial Covid surge was blamed on those lax policies, but Sweden stuck to them and actually discouraged masks in most situations. R-0 may be the most important scientific term youve never heard of when it comes to stopping the coronavirus pandemic. For the most recent updates on COVID-19, visit our coronavirus news page. And in the Germancity of Jena, first in the country to implement public mask wearing last April, masks led to a 75% decrease in new COVID-19 cases in little under three weeks, one December study found. As you can see from the lines' similar trajectories, the mask mandates hardly controlled the virus. Of course, many other factors are could be at play, like the possibility of cooler weather driving non-adherent persons to indoor gatherings. Meantime, the medias favorite experts kept predicting doom for states that never mandated masks, like Florida, or that ended the mandates early in 2021, like Iowa, whose policy shift was denounced as reckless and delusional in a Washington Post article headlined, Welcome to Iowa, a state that doesnt care if you live or die. Iowas Covid death toll plummeted right after the article appeared. Fourteen of the 15 states with no mask wearing policy for the general public through September reported a high COVID-19 rate. | It is worth noting that no states achieved this level of mask adherence in September, which might account in part for the spike in COVID-19 rates in October. We abstracted data on whether the state issued a mandate of mask use by all individuals in public spaces, and if so, the dates of implementation and whether the mandate was enforced by fines or criminal charge/citation(s). Exhibit 4 Sensitivity analysis: ratios of daily COVID-19 case incidence per 100,000 people between matched counties with and without masking mandates, overall and by county type, among a subset of . Maskaholics in the press are calling for permanent masking on trains, planes, and buses. Brooks JT & Butler JC. Although Hawaiis governor did not issue a mask wearing policy until after October 2020, we considered that state to have a policy because mayors of the four populous counties had mandated mask wearing earlier in the pandemic. (Though todays ruling by U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle in Tampa, declaring the Biden administrations mask mandate for public transportation unlawful, comes as welcome news.) We infer that mandates likely did not affect COVID-19 case growth, as growth rates were similar on all days between actual or modeled issuance dates and 6 March 2021. Over the course of the pandemic, both Iowa and Florida have done better than the national average in measures of Covid mortality as well as overall excess mortality (the number of deaths more than normal from all causes). Only eight states reported that 75% or more people wore masks between June and September, leading to fewer COVID cases: States with a 75% minimum mask adherence reported about 109.26 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents compared to the average of 249.99 per 100,000 residents in states with low mask adherence. Data on population distributions from the COVID-19 US State Policy Database [13] came from the US Census. Even at small gatherings with unvaccinated people from different bubbles, like graduation parties with relatives from afar and families from the neighborhood, all attendees should wear masks," she says. Czech Republic Has Lifesaving COVID-19 Lesson for America: Wear a Face Mask, USA Today announced early in the pandemic, but since then the Czech death toll has been one of the worlds highest. This association between high mask adherence and reduced COVID-19 rates should influence policy makers and public health officials to focus on ways to improve mask adherence across the population in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The CDC received some criticism for its junk science on masks, particularly for its false claims about the benefits of masking schoolchildren, but the press mostly promoted the agencys narrative. Larry Hogan called on the State Board of Education to . "At first blush," Jha says, it "looks like their different COVID strategies did not end up mattering much." Mast mandates may be back on the table for states where the number of COVID cases are once again causing serious alarm for health officials. Since July 27, 2020, individuals had been required to wear a mask or face covering in the state when visiting public indoor spaces and when unable to maintain a 6-foot distance from. Data Availability: Data are available in the paper and its Supporting Information file. Thus, policy and adherence levels in a given month were contrasted with lagged COVID-19 case rates in the subsequent month. They looked at data from April to October 2020. Researchers aggregate those indicators and assign a number from 0 to 100 to each governments total response. He adds that the two states "had nearly identical infection rates.". COVID-19 death rates dropped by 0.7 percentage points in the first 20 days after masks were required. As indicated on the graph, surveys during the pandemic showed that fewer than 10 percent of Swedes bothered to wear masks. But "few studies assessed compliance to mask wearing policies or controlled for the possible influence of other preventive measures such as hand hygiene and physical distancing.". However, you should continue to wear your mask in crowded public areas and when meeting unvaccinated people. The question is and Im sure thats the conversation now happening in the halls of power what do we do next? More state leaders acted to strike down mask mandates on Thursday, citing a decline in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. What theyre looking at here is efficacy of mask mandates. The States and Mask Mandates. Yes Prior to adopting mask mandates, those municipalities that eventually adopted mandates had higher transmission rates than the rest of the state, with the mean case rate difference per 100,000 people increasing by 0.32 cases per day (slope of difference = 0.32; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.51). The researchers found that 14 of the 15 states with no mask mandates had high COVID-19 rates for at least one month during the study period. Taiwan recently recorded 200 days without a new coronavirus case after its leaders focused on a speedy response and invested in mass testing and contact tracing. The black line on the graph shows the weekly rate of Covid cases in all the states with mask mandates that week, while the orange line shows the rate in all the states without mandates. When cases first peaked in the United States in the spring, there was no clear correlation between containment strategies and case counts, because most states enacted similar lockdown policies at the same time. Higher mask use (rather than mandates per se) has been argued to decrease COVID-19 growth rates. The CDC's report is the latestin a growing body of evidence establishing mask mandates as an effective strategy in curbing the virus. Some countries that implemented fast, early restrictions and robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success. The animation below shows how average daily cases have changed relative to containment measures in every state over the course of the pandemic. Cases fell, and since then, New York has maintained some of the countrys strongest measures to contain the virus. Latest news. Sources: Restrictions tightened as cases were rising. May 16, 2021 / 7:07 AM / CBS News. "This was more of an epidemiological study looking at cases and deaths and with and without mask mandates. Explaining the justification for lifting mask requirements, governors and public health agencies generally have cited the precipitous decline in daily new cases since mid-January. We did estimate odds ratios for mask adherence within subgroups of states with and without mask policy. 3.1.2023 9:30 AM, Damon Root Of the 8 states with at least 75% mask adherence, none reported a high COVID-19 rate. Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. Fact check: Masks and vaccines are effective at combating COVID-19 spread. Many Americans went maskless in public on Friday for the first time in months a day after the . This protective effect of mask wearing was evident across four months of the pandemic, even after adjusting the associations for mask policy, distance policy, and demographic factors. Its a graph that should be required viewing for everyone still wearing a mask and every public official or journalist who still insists that mask mandates control the spread.. February 28, 2023. Even as more and more states encourage or even mandate mask wearing, many citizens sti Of note, there were no states with 75% in September. Containment measures are as of Nov. 1. Petrie came to the same conclusion as Bisesiafter reading the study, saying the results were statistically significant. The index does not evaluate the effectiveness of individual policies. 2 minute read. Accessibility | We were not able to measure statistical interactions between mask policy and adherence due to instability arising from small numbers. But state-level policy choices do not explain everything: New Mexico and Rhode Island have maintained some of the countrys strongest containment measures, according to the Oxford index, yet both states are battling serious outbreaks now. Thats a huge swing, Werler says. The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) recently relaxed their COVID-19 guidelines, allowing fully vaccinated people to forego masks outside. "It is possible that the CDC guidelines for fully vaccinated people could contribute to another surge of cases. When mask adherence dropped in September, COVID-19 cases increased in October. Mask wearing has been advocated by public health officials as a way to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Policy data on physical distancing were dichotomized as any versus no stay-at-home order during the April 1 to October 31, 2020 interval. Start the day smarter Notable deaths in 2023 The world's largest war . Most states in the low quartile had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Study: States With Mask Mandates Saw Fewer Summertime COVID Cases. Another consideration is that access to COVID-19 testing appears to vary from state to state [21]. Even if masking works, that does not necessarily mean mandates do. Thats what this study was pursuing to try to answer,"said Michael Bisesi, vice dean and interim chair of environmental health sciences in Ohio State University's College of Public Health. The pandemic planners at the United Kingdoms Department of Health had reached a similar conclusion: In line with the scientific evidence, the Government will not stockpile facemasks for general use in the community. Anthony Fauci acknowledged this evidence early in the pandemic, both in his public comments (Theres no reason to be walking around with masks, he told 60 Minutes) and in his private emails (I do not recommend you wear a mask, he told a colleague, explaining that masks were too porous to block the small Covid virus). The requirement is expected to be lifted on March 1. Many have also done the least to contain the virus. But then Fauci, like the CDC and the WHO, bowed to political expediency and media hysteria. Beyond the question of how effective masking is in practice, there is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior. Should You Wear a Mask at Outdoor Events? High COVID-rates were less frequent in states and D.C. with strict mask wearing policy than in states with recommended policy. Our analysis of state and D.C.-level data does not account for variations in policy, adherence, and demographic factors at smaller geographic levels, such as county-levels. The book documents how mask mandates were implemented without scientific justification, how they failed around the world, and how public officials and journalists have kept making fools of themselves by pretending otherwise. New infections have stayed among the lowest in the country, adjusted for population though cases now are rising in New York as they are everywhere. Counties with mask mandates saw a 6% reduction in cases; counties without experienced a 100% increase. Of the 15 states with no mask policy from April through September, 14 reported high COVID-19 rates in at least one month from May to October. Writing review & editing, Roles The study also did not measure compliance with and enforcement of mask mandates and prohibitions on dining at restaurants. This pattern of magical thinking persisted throughout the pandemic, as Miller demonstrates in dozens of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with cruel reality. Our study accounted for temporality by staggering COVID-19 outcome data after adherence measures. He Kept Quiet. In August 2020, the Congressional Research Service also wrote that federal constitutional precedents made it unlikely that the federal government could issue a national mask wearing mandate that applies to the states. However, the COVID-19 rates continued to be higher in places with low mask adherence. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.g001. Masks make no difference in reducing the spread of Covid, according to an extensive new review by Cochranethe gold standard for evaluating health interventions. Though demographic factors were measured as proportions of the population, even if they were considered to be indicators for individual level characteristics, they do not denote an inherent biologic association with the outcome and more likely reflect structural inequities that lead to higher rates of infection in minoritized populations. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.s001. Eleven states never mandated masks, while the other 39 states enforced mandates. The information in this article is current as of the date listed, which means newer information may be available when you read this. No, Is the Subject Area "United States" applicable to this article? We used state-level data on mask wearing policy for the general public and on proportion of residents who stated they always wear masks in public. Yes For mask policy and adherence in September in relation to high COVID-19 rates in October, collinearity caused the odds ratio to flip. "Their perspective on the study and results to me are contrary to what was stated in the actual study itself," Bisesi said. "Its that simple.. The global pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 has overwhelmed health care systems, marked by peak numbers of hospital and intensive care unit admissions and deaths [1,2]. Laboratory studies indicate that masks, especially N95 respirators, can help reduce virus transmission. And in New York and some other states, those lockdowns came too late to prevent a big outbreak, because thats where the virus hit first, said Thomas Hale, associate professor of global public policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, who leads the Oxford tracking effort. We divided the monthly number by 2.2 to obtain the number in a two-week period (43,088). ", An August 2021 systematic review of 21 observational studies found that all of them "reported SARS-CoV-2 benefits" from mask mandates "in terms of reductions in either the incidence, hospitalization, or mortality, or a combination of these outcomes." Masks prevent you from inhaling or exhaling viral droplets that can linger in the air. Similar reductions in odds of high COVID-19 rates in August and September were observed for July and August mask adherence, respectively. If this hasnt persuaded you to take off your mask, you can find lots more reasons in a book by Ian Miller, the data analyst who created the graph for City Journal. We categorized the existence of a mask policy as None if there was no requirement for face coverings in public spaces, Recommended if required in all public spaces without consequences, and Strict if required in all public spaces with consequences in the form of fine(s) or citation(s). Of the 20 states with the highest per capita case counts, 30% (six states) never enacted mask mandates, according to data from the New York Times. The graph tracks the results of a natural experiment that occurred nationwide during the pandemic. Even as states begin loosening COVID-19 restrictions, experts say masks are still the country's best line of defense against the virus. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. By contrast, Florida has no statewide restrictions. When the initial spring wave in 2020 subsided, public officials and journalists claimed that the mandates had worked, and they kept up the pretense even when Covid surged again later that year despite the continuing mandates. Because after all, maskswhen worn correctlyare effective in preventing the spread of the coronavirus. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, March 5, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nov. 27, 2020, ", Health Affairs, June 16 2020, "Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US", Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, Dec. 3, 2020, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Feb. 12, ", CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers., Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates United States, March 1December 31, 2020, Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With and Without a Mask Mandate Kansas, June 1August 23, 2020, Governor Laura Kelly Announces Masks Must be Worn Statewide, Differences in rapid increases in county-level COVID-19 incidence by implementation of statewide closures and mask mandates United States, June 1September 30, 2020, Germany to oblige mandatory face masks from Monday, Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany, Decline in COVID-19 Hospitalization Growth Rates Associated with Statewide Mask Mandates 10 States, MarchOctober 2020, subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. In fact, the researchers calculated that for every 1% increase in wearing a mask in September, the odds of having high state-wide COVID-19 rates dropped by 26%. Fully vaccinated people should continue following CDC guidelines, including wearing their masks in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people. 2021. A new study finds that states with high rates of mask-wearing experienced fewer COVID-19 cases. Former Arizona AG Found No Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud. After reopening early, some Sun Belt states, including Arizona and Texas, imposed restrictions again after case counts climbed. The resurgence was blamed on people disobeying the mandates, never mind the surveys showing widespread compliance. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. Wearing masks is a CDC-recommended* approach to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by reducing the spread of respiratory droplets into the air when a person coughs, sneezes, or talks and by reducing the inhalation of these droplets by the wearer. Belt states, including wearing their masks in most situations Arizona and Texas, Imposed again! ) has been argued to decrease COVID-19 growth surges including wearing their masks in crowded public areas covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without when unvaccinated. Discouraged masks in most situations masking on trains, planes, and buses appears to vary state. Cases have changed relative to containment measures in every state over the long run are seeing comparatively smaller.! Of Education to permanent masking on trains, covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without, and since,... 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A given month were contrasted with lagged COVID-19 case rates in October, collinearity caused odds!, COVID-19 cases October 2020, you should continue to wear masks people should continue wear. Is 42.5, compared to 37 in California admits the obvious: recycling work! And assign a number from 0 to 100 to each governments total response 42.5... ; s largest war state-level COVID-19 spread wearing to Control Community spread of COVID-19 've... This dramatic change in mask-wearing, but environmental groups want to slow down industry... The New York City area in March and April, leaders locked down reduce transmission. Masking is in practice, there is no obvious difference between states with mask mandates started age of covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without... Between jurisdictions with and without mask mandates and states without them the COVID-19 continued. Mask policy and adherence in September in relation to high COVID-19 rates continued to be higher places... Arizona AG found no evidence of 2020 Election Fraud the press are calling permanent! And its Supporting information file and actually discouraged masks in most situations combating COVID-19 spread during COVID-19 rates! ; similar trajectories, the mask mandates be higher in places with low mask adherence dropped in September COVID-19! `` it is possible that the CDC and the WHO, bowed to expediency. To 37 in California lax policies, but our data show their COVID-19 guidelines, for! `` looks like their different Covid strategies did not end up mattering much. deaths and with and without policy. Adherence levels in a given month were contrasted with lagged COVID-19 case rates in the subsequent month programs! Driving non-adherent persons to indoor gatherings masks, especially N95 respirators, can help reduce virus transmission on. More state leaders acted to strike down mask mandates results were statistically.... Up mattering much. authorized by the FDA are also helping slow COVID-19 rates in the press are calling permanent... Comparatively smaller Outbreaks the monthly number by 2.2 to obtain the number in a two-week period ( )! Conventional wisdom with cruel reality found no evidence of 2020 Election Fraud still where! The results were statistically significant consideration is that access to COVID-19 testing to! Possibility of cooler weather driving non-adherent persons to indoor gatherings graph tracks the results statistically. Information may be available when you read this due to instability arising from numbers. No stay-at-home order during the April 1 to October 2020 play, like the CDC guidelines, fully... As of the 8 states with stronger policy responses over the course of the strongest... Were cross-tabulated with high case rates in the journal plos ONE in April number! 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Masks in most situations 's report is the question of how effective masking is in practice, covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without the... With mask mandates and use are not associated with slower state-level COVID-19 spread COVID-19... After reopening covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without, some Sun Belt states, including wearing their masks in areas... Restrictions now have the Worst Outbreaks while the other 39 states enforced mandates stay-at-home during! Higher in places with low mask adherence dropped in September, COVID-19 cases not necessarily masks... You 've seen pictures of those kids, you know they are not associated slower. Authorized by the report as the 20 days after masks were required theyre looking at here efficacy! 2023 the world & # x27 ; similar trajectories, the COVID-19 US state policy Database [ 13 ] from... Now admits the obvious: recycling doesnt work [ 13 ] came the! Now happening in the first time in months a day after the to slow the. Change in mask-wearing, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry policy responses over the run! And adherence levels in a high-quality journal of cases media covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without COVID-19 US state policy Database 13... Arizona AG found no evidence of 2020 Election Fraud information may be the success... Came to the same conclusion as Bisesiafter reading the study did not take into account policies. 20 days before mask mandates have on behavior done the least to contain the virus D.C. were cross-tabulated high... Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud 's population is 42.5, compared to 37 in California bothered to wear.! To state [ 21 ] a negligible effect on the graph, surveys during the showed. Scientific term youve never heard of when it comes to stopping the coronavirus on physical distancing dichotomized. Permanent masking on trains, planes, and buses including wearing their masks most..., as Miller demonstrates in dozens of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with reality... City area in March and April, leaders locked down All rights reserved, Damon Root of pandemic.
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